Call Centre Forecasting

Call centre forecasting is a bit like predicting the weather.  Except that meteorology is a far more exact science.

Call centres live and die by the quality of their call volume forecasts.  When the weather bureau gets its forecast wrong we might just end up getting wet because we left the umbrella at home.

Where call centre forecasting is continually inaccurate, it is most likely that the call centre will very quickly cease to exist.

The first point of reference in call volume forecasting is to look at the historical data.  What happened on this day last year?  The year before that?  Do we have a trend?

In a call centre environment, the trend must then be broken down into hourly (or even smaller) intervals.  Peaks and troughs during the day should also start to appear.

Sophisticated forecasting tools help with the task, but they still rely on the knowledge of the operator.  The human element must manipulate the data to allow for anticipated events and smooth it to remove the impact of unusual events. 

Adjustments must be made for holidays, natural (or other) disasters and industrial incidents such as strikes.  Even the weather can upset the call volume in some centres due to delays and service cancellations.

Getting call volume forecasts wrong costs a call centre on several fronts.

Underestimating call volume leads to an unacceptable rate of abandoned calls.  Abandoned calls mean the service level is not met so the client is not happy.  Customers with excessive waiting times in queues get cranky.  Cranky customers then vent their rage on staff leading to low morale and high attrition.

Overestimating caller demand has an immediate impact on the bottom line.  Less than fully utilised customer service agents are not a pretty sight.  Service level goals might be easily achieved but idle staff sends the cost per call through the roof.

Multi skilled call centres present an additional challenge for the operations manager or workforce planner.  In predicting call volume they must also break down the forecast by call type.

What is the behaviour of customers likely to be, in the next six week period?  What specific events are occurring in key markets that might sway the customer towards product or service?  Bearing these assumptions in mind, the forecast must be matched with the availability of appropriately skilled staff.

The operations manager really must have the gift of prophecy.  He must look at the past and, in effect, determine the future.  The client, staff, customers and management rely on accurate call volume forecasts.

One final spoke in the forecast wheel – shrinkage.  Sick leave, annual leave and attrition are additional assumptions that must be factored in to the forecast.  Team meetings and training, the dreaded bogies of the operations manager, must also be squeezed in.

The resulting roster is hopefully a harmonious dove tailing of schedule adherence and call centre forecasting that’s spot on.  Fingers crossed!